How Trump’s tariffs affect B2B technical wholesale

Summer 2025. Donald Trump is back in the White House and with him a policy of economic isolationism. Already in the first weeks of his second term he has announced and partly implemented new import tariffs. Global supply chains and purchasing conditions are visibly changing. Since April 5, 2025 a US baseline tariff of 10 percent has been in force.

For the European Union a separate arrangement was agreed at the end of July. EU goods are now subject to a flat US tariff of 15 percent. In return the EU will cut tariffs on US industrial products. For German B2B technical wholesalers this means higher procurement costs, pressure on margins and more uncertainty in supply chains. Thank you, Mr. President.

For many managing directors and sales leaders in B2B technical wholesale this feels like déjà vu. Between 2018 and 2020 they already had to witness how political decisions in Washington directly affected margins, purchasing costs and supply chains. What does this mean now for German wholesale companies, especially those with thousands of customers and portfolios of 20,000 to 100,000 products in areas such as HVAC, piping and valves, personal protection or technical trade.

It is also clear that between the moment this is written and the moment you read it, everything could have changed again. Let us nevertheless take a closer look at the possible direct effects.

Trade dispute. When the price rises on the ocean route

The new tariff policy does not hit B2B wholesalers directly, but indirectly with full force. Many of the technical components, tools and spare parts sold by German wholesalers contain intermediate products from China or the United States. The US baseline tariff is set at 10 percent, EU goods are currently at 15 percent. For China the rates were temporarily raised significantly and later reduced again. Along the chain prices and planning efforts increase.

According to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office German exports to the United States fell by 7.7 percent in May 2025 compared with April. Associations are urging caution.

Although tariffs are intended as instruments of foreign policy pressure, they mainly hit medium sized companies. Not only manufacturers are affected but especially wholesalers with direct contact to the end customer. They experience price increases in real time.

Conclusion. The rise in import costs is not an abstract danger, it is already happening. Wholesalers feel it in procurement, their customers will soon feel it in prices. And if you think this is bad, just wait until you talk to a wholesaler from Canada.

Chapter 2. Another silent erosion of your margin

You run a family owned regional mid sized technical wholesale business. Export to the United States is not your main concern. The real threat lies deeper. Your already thin margins are being eroded step by step. Purchase prices and unpredictability are rising, but sales prices cannot be adjusted at the same speed.

Many German wholesalers sell to long standing customers with fixed contracts or price lists. These customers are price sensitive, they compare offers on the internet, they use competing offers and they still expect the usual availability and service.

The current VTH industry report shows that the gross margin of members in technical trade was already declining in 2023 despite stable sales. Three new tariffs exacerbate this trend. Those who do not invest in pricing intelligence and data driven sales control now will lose profitability and often customers as well.

Conclusion. Trump’s tariffs are driving up costs and reducing customer patience. If you want to protect your margin you need to sell smarter. I do not mean using a large language model with your ERP sales data. I mean classic, human based intelligence. Yes, perhaps supported by predictive sales.

No more business as usual. Supply chains under stress

On the logistical level tariffs and trade disputes with the United States are causing considerable turmoil. Producers react to the new cost structures by relocating their sites, changing their sources of supply or redefining their delivery priorities. And you. Enjoy the list prices of 2026.

For German wholesalers this means new uncertainties regarding availability, delivery times and costs. Already today numerous HVAC and piping wholesalers report delayed containers, higher planning efforts and a growing need for safety stocks.

The once stable and predictable trade relations with the United States are increasingly becoming a geopolitical risk. The German BGA trade association has stressed that no deal with the United States should come at any price. Trade relations with the United States remain important but are politically more sensitive. Legally the situation remains dynamic as key measures are being challenged in court.

Conclusion. Supply chains are changing not temporarily but structurally. Those who neglect flexibility and forecasting will soon pay twice.

 
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Why medium sized companies must act now

Tariffs are political, their effect is economic. Companies that are prepared can cushion the impact. With data, clear processes and technology it is possible to move from reacting to acting.

German wholesale is excellent, but it is not untouchable. Trump’s second presidency should be a wake up call for all those who still rely more on experience than on real time data.

The good news. You can act immediately. Our predictive sales solutions can be implemented without long IT projects. They are based on your ERP, your data and your customers and deliver results within just a few weeks.

Our customers at Qymatix have been using predictive sales software for years to:

• manage prices dynamically with a focus on margin
• identify customer risks at an early stage
• suggest alternative products in a targeted manner
• keep inventory and procurement costs under control

Whether you sell HVAC, piping and valves, electrical or technical products. You are not only selling items. You are selling trust. And trust is built when your customers see that you are making the right decisions even in uncertain times.

Let us talk.